FK Jablonec vs Zlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Strelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Strelnice than their overall form suggests.
Zlin — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FK Jablonec are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FK Jablonec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zlin in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FK Jablonec, 1 for Zlin and 7 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Zlin trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 42% versus Zlin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 38% | Zlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.01 xG and Zlin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.002 / defence 0.842 | Zlin attack 1.020 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 FK Jablonec games / 36 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 21% | Zlin 22%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Zlin 4.55. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 21% | Zlin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG FK Jablonec 2.01 / Zlin 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.002 / def 0.842 | Zlin attack 1.020 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Zlin xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Zlin kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Zlin part of?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 56% chance of winning, Zlin a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FK Jablonec and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
Record (10 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 7 | Zlin 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
56%
1.77
21%
4.66
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.20
1.19
Zlin xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
3%
33.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.19 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 8D 13L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.95 PPG from 40 outings (10W 8D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.12 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 19W 8D 13L in their last 40 games (1.62 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 8D 22L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Zlin away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.89 PPG; Zlin away: 0.68 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Zlin in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
7
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Zlin have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Zlin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FK Jablonec) and 47% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Zlin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FK Jablonec's games and 53% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 47% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Zlin tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zlin in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.