FK Jablonec 0-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 48%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this FK Jablonec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Teplice (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Teplice away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Teplice arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Teplice in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FK Jablonec 2W, Teplice 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 4–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Teplice — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 56% versus Teplice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Teplice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.82 xG and Teplice 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.996 / defence 1.017 | Teplice attack 1.028 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 FK Jablonec games / 60 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 25% | Teplice 26%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Teplice 3.85. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 25% | Teplice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG FK Jablonec 1.82 / Teplice 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.996 / def 1.017 | Teplice attack 1.028 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Teplice xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Teplice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
FK Jablonec 0 - 2 Teplice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Teplice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 48% chance of winning, Teplice a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FK Jablonec and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
Record (3 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (1.03x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.93
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.13
1.31
Teplice xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
4%
23.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.31 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 69 games, going 16W 26D 27L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.04 PPG from 69 outings (19W 15D 35L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.04 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 9W 15D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.73 points per game from 33 outings (6W 6D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.16 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 26D 27L in their last 69 games (1.07 PPG), while Teplice have gone 19W 15D 35L in their last 69 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Teplice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.27 PPG; Teplice away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-1 on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Teplice 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (FK Jablonec) and 76% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FK Jablonec's games and 61% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of FK Jablonec's matches and 76% of Teplice's.
Do FK Jablonec and Teplice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Teplice in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat FK Jablonec 0-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.82 xG and Teplice 1.31 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Teplice attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 25% | Teplice 26%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Teplice 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.07 PPG, Teplice 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.