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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.36 xG and Sparta Praha 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Sparta Praha attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 32%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 54%, Sparta Praha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.80 PPG, Sparta Praha 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights