🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Slovácko encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FK Jablonec host Slovácko at Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Strelnice than their overall form suggests.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Slovácko's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.40 PPG versus Slovácko's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

FK Jablonec hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Slovácko, with 3 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with FK Jablonec winning.

The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Slovácko in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Slovácko 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Slovácko 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.57 xG and Slovácko 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.023 / defence 0.880 | Slovácko attack 0.611 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.268. Data: 50 FK Jablonec games / 50 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 16%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Slovácko 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 50% | Slovácko 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights