🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Slovácko encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FK Jablonec host Slovácko at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Slovácko's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.30 PPG versus Slovácko's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, FK Jablonec have won 3, Slovácko 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Slovácko in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 51% versus Slovácko 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Slovácko 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.19 xG and Slovácko 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.163 / defence 0.857 | Slovácko attack 1.015 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.194. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 FK Jablonec games / 50 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 64% | Draw 20% | Slovácko 17%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Slovácko 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 40% | Slovácko 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights