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Shock result as Slovan Liberec defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.53 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.02 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 23%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Slovan Liberec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Slovan Liberec 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.80 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights