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Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.89 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.96 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.42 / defence 0.85 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 18%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Slovan Liberec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.41 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights