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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Slovácko 4-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.19 xG and Slovácko 1.04 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovácko outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Slovácko attack 1.01 / defence 1.27, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 64% | Draw 20% | Slovácko 17%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Slovácko's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.29 PPG, Slovácko 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights