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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.00 xG and Slavia Praha 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.05 / defence 0.75 against Slavia Praha attack 1.12 / defence 0.68, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 35% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 35%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 49%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights