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Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Slavia Praha 3-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Championship Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.03 xG and Slavia Praha 1.04 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.12 / defence 0.71 against Slavia Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.68, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 34% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 35%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Slavia Praha 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with FK Jablonec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights