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Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Sigma Olomouc 4-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.87 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.12 / defence 0.70 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 24%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Sigma Olomouc 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.50 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights