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Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 27, as FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.68 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.03 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 52% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 22%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Sigma Olomouc 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.38 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights