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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FK Jablonec and Plzen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 16, as FK Jablonec and Plzen drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.16 xG and Plzen 1.44 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Plzen attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 30% | Plzen 41%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Plzen's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.88 PPG, Plzen 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights