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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Pardubice 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 1-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.59 xG and Pardubice 0.68 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.24 / defence 0.72 against Pardubice attack 0.77 / defence 1.54, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | Pardubice 7%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Pardubice 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights