FK Jablonec 3-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3. The match kicks off on Thursday 16 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FK Jablonec, 1.10 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FK Jablonec lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 63% versus Pardubice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 52% | Pardubice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.42 xG and Pardubice 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.947 / defence 1.038 | Pardubice attack 0.933 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 FK Jablonec games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 40% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 32%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Pardubice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 80% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 40% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG FK Jablonec 1.42 / Pardubice 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.947 / def 1.038 | Pardubice attack 0.933 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pardubice xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
FK Jablonec 3 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 40% chance of winning, Pardubice a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FK Jablonec and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
Record (5 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 0.95x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.93x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.53
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.67
1.25
Pardubice xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
8%
13.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.25 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 17W 23D 27L from 67 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 34L across 67 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.12 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 11W 14D 8L from 33 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 10W 4D 19L across 33 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.09 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 17W 23D 27L in their last 67 games (1.10 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 21W 12D 34L in their last 67 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Pardubice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.42 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 3-0 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
3
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Pardubice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 70%, Pardubice 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 52% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FK Jablonec's games and 48% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 52% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Pardubice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 3-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.42 xG and Pardubice 1.25 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Pardubice attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 40% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 32%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 52%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.10 PPG, Pardubice 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.