FK Jablonec 5-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FK Jablonec face Karviná.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Karviná meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadion Střelnice — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Karviná (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. FK Jablonec's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Karviná's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: FK Jablonec 3W, Karviná 1W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Karviná winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Karviná — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 53% versus Karviná 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 47% | Karviná 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.62 xG and Karviná 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.274 / defence 0.943 | Karviná attack 1.111 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.199. FK Jablonec carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 FK Jablonec games / 51 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 67% | Draw 17% | Karviná 16%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.49 | Draw 5.88 | Karviná 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 50% | Karviná 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 67% | Draw 17% | Karviná 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 66% | xG FK Jablonec 2.62 / Karviná 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.274 / def 0.943 | Karviná attack 1.111 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Karviná xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Karviná kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
FK Jablonec 5 - 0 Karviná.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Karviná part of?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 67% chance of winning, Karviná a 16% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FK Jablonec and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
Record (7 meetings): FK Jablonec 3W | Draws 3 | Karviná 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Karviná (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.27) and Karviná's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.11x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
67%
1.50
17%
5.85
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.87
1.26
Karviná xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
7%
13.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
1%
83.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.26 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 17D 20L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.04 PPG from 57 outings (15W 14D 28L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.04 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 14W 8D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.86 points per game from 28 outings (6W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.09 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 20W 17D 20L in their last 57 games (1.35 PPG), while Karviná have gone 15W 14D 28L in their last 57 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Karviná away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.79 PPG; Karviná away: 0.86 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Karviná in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 57%, Karviná 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 64% (Karviná). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FK Jablonec's games and 61% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FK Jablonec's matches and 64% of Karviná's.
Do FK Jablonec and Karviná tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Karviná in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Karviná 5-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.62 xG and Karviná 1.26 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.27 / defence 0.94 against Karviná attack 1.11 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 67% | Draw 17% | Karviná 16%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Karviná 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Karviná's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.35 PPG, Karviná 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.