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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Karviná 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Karviná 1-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.53 xG and Karviná 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Karviná landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Karviná attack 1.15 / defence 1.22, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 28% | Karviná 28%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Karviná 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Karviná's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights