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Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Karviná 5-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.62 xG and Karviná 1.26 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.27 / defence 0.94 against Karviná attack 1.11 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 67% | Draw 17% | Karviná 16%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Karviná 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Karviná's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.35 PPG, Karviná 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights