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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Championship Group - 2 as FK Jablonec welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Strelnice. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

FK Jablonec's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Strelnice this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, FK Jablonec have won 4, Hradec Králové 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Hradec Králové winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Hradec Králové 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Hradec Králové 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Hradec Králové 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.025 / defence 0.964 | Hradec Králové attack 1.049 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 FK Jablonec games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 35%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

FK Jablonec dominate the H2H record, yet Hradec Králové are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Hradec Králové 40%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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