🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hradec Králové.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Hradec Králové 2-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.27 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 0.83 against Hradec Králové attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 40% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 32%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 53%, Hradec Králové 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.72 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights