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Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 12, as FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.66 xG and Dukla Praha 0.76 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.21 / defence 0.82 against Dukla Praha attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 14%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Dukla Praha 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FK Jablonec's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights