České Budějovice 0-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 20 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
České Budějovice (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. České Budějovice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in České Budějovice's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sigma Olomouc in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: České Budějovice 2W, Sigma Olomouc 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — České Budějovice 62% and Sigma Olomouc 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 59% | Sigma Olomouc 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.68 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.017 / defence 1.041 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.019 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.244. Data: 30 České Budějovice games / 30 Sigma Olomouc games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 45% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 3.45. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 70% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 45% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG České Budějovice 1.68 / Sigma Olomouc 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.017 / def 1.041 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.019 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sigma Olomouc xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
České Budějovice 0 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 45% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (6 meetings): České Budějovice 2W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 3W.
What form are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
České Budějovice's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.02x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.84
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.00
1.32
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
5%
18.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.32 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 9D 16L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. České Budějovice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (10W 7D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. Sigma Olomouc haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.16 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
České Budějovice's home form reads 7W 3D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.31 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Sigma Olomouc in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Pre-Season
Sigma Olomouc
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 7W 9D 16L in their last 32 games (0.94 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.60 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sigma Olomouc go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
České Budějovice
1
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for České Budějovice, 73% for Sigma Olomouc — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for České Budějovice and 60% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of České Budějovice's games and 73% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of České Budějovice's matches and 60% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat České Budějovice 0-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.68 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.32 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 45% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 59%, Sigma Olomouc 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 0.94 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.