České Budějovice 0-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as České Budějovice face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as České Budějovice welcome Plzen to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.10 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Plzen, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for České Budějovice.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–5 with Plzen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Plzen in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 59% versus Plzen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 64% | Plzen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.01 xG and Plzen 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.874 / defence 1.315 | Plzen attack 1.123 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.071. Data: 34 České Budějovice games / 34 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 24% | Draw 25% | Plzen 51%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Plzen 1.96. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 80% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 24% | Draw 25% | Plzen 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG České Budějovice 1.01 / Plzen 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.874 / def 1.315 | Plzen attack 1.123 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Plzen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Plzen xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Plzen kick off?
České Budějovice vs Plzen kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
České Budějovice 0 - 3 Plzen.
Where is České Budějovice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Plzen part of?
České Budějovice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 24% chance of winning, Plzen a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both České Budějovice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Record (6 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 6W.
What form are České Budějovice and Plzen in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.87) and Plzen's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
24%
4.11
25%
3.97
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.60
1.58
Plzen xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
5%
19.98
18%
5.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.58 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 8W 9D 22L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen's form line: 24W 8D 7L from 39 games, 2.05 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Venue Form
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 10W 5D 4L from 19 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.18 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Plzen in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 9D 22L in their last 39 games (0.85 PPG), while Plzen have gone 24W 8D 7L in their last 39 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.42 PPG; Plzen away: 1.84 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Plzen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
0
Draws
8
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Plzen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2024, when Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 58%, Plzen 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for České Budějovice and 58% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 26% of games; Plzen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of České Budějovice's games and 63% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of České Budějovice's matches and 58% of Plzen's.
Do České Budějovice and Plzen tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Plzen in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat České Budějovice 0-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.01 xG and Plzen 1.58 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.87 / defence 1.31 against Plzen attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 24% | Draw 25% | Plzen 51%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 64%, Plzen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.