🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out České Budějovice 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat České Budějovice 1-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.13 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.71 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.76 / defence 1.45 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 25% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 51%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

České Budějovice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.58. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights