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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out České Budějovice 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat České Budějovice 2-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.20 xG and Karviná 1.53 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.63 / defence 1.55 against Karviná attack 0.88 / defence 1.35, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 29% | Draw 27% | Karviná 44%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 64%, Karviná 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

České Budějovice's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights