České Budějovice 2-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates České Budějovice at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 1.10 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, České Budějovice are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives České Budějovice a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 55% versus Bohemians 1905 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 64% | Bohemians 1905 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.75 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.045 / defence 1.062 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.982 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 České Budějovice games / 60 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 28%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 3.57. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 40% | Bohemians 1905 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG České Budějovice 1.75 / Bohemians 1905 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.045 / def 1.062 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.982 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bohemians 1905 xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
České Budějovice 2 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 46% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (6 meetings): České Budějovice 4W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.98x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.92
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.09
1.34
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.34 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 17W 11D 34L from 62 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 24L across 62 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.29 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 13W 4D 14L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 10W 8D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 17W 11D 34L in their last 62 games (1.00 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 17D 24L in their last 62 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.39 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: České Budějovice won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
České Budějovice
2
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 5, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 48%, Bohemians 1905 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for České Budějovice and 58% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 61% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of České Budějovice's matches and 58% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Bohemians 1905 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.75 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.34 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 46% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 28%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 64%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.00 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.