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Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 0-4 hammering of České Budějovice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat České Budějovice 0-4 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.76 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.66 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.64 / defence 1.36 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.02 / defence 0.78, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 17% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 59%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Baník Ostrava 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

České Budějovice's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights