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Poisson rates Dukla Praha at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice encounter.

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Match Analysis

Dukla Praha host České Budějovice at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Dukla Praha — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at Stadion Juliska, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Juliska this season.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Dukla Praha have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dukla Praha, 0 for České Budějovice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Dukla Praha trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

České Budějovice trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 68% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 53% versus České Budějovice 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 50% | České Budějovice 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.37 xG and České Budějovice 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.710 / defence 1.089 | České Budějovice attack 0.667 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Dukla Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Dukla Praha games / 60 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 48% | Draw 28% | České Budějovice 24%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | České Budějovice 4.17. Dukla Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Dukla Praha as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 60% | České Budějovice 30% BTTS from recent games.

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