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Teplice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Dukla Praha 1-3 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.35 xG and Teplice 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Teplice attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 46% | Draw 31% | Teplice 24%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 40%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (45 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (45 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.89 PPG, Teplice 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights