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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dukla Praha and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.16 xG and Teplice 1.32 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.77 / defence 1.36 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 32% | Draw 28% | Teplice 40%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 52%, Teplice 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights