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Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Dukla Praha 0-3 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.96 xG and Sparta Praha 1.38 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Sparta Praha attack 1.08 / defence 0.80, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 26% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 47%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 39%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights