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Prediction vindicated as Dukla Praha edge out Slovácko 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha beat Slovácko 1-0 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.02 xG and Slovácko 0.89 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Slovácko attack 0.67 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 34% | Draw 39% | Slovácko 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dukla Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 40%, Slovácko 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (47 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Slovácko's trading profile (47 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.87 PPG, Slovácko 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights