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Dukla Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plzen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha beat Plzen 2-0 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.12 xG and Plzen 1.71 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Plzen attack 1.39 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 24% | Draw 25% | Plzen 50%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Dukla Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 45%, Plzen 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Plzen's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Dukla Praha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights