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Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Dukla Praha 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Dukla Praha 0-1 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.40 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.33 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dukla Praha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.02 / defence 1.32, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 32%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 39%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (49 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (49 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.92 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights