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Stalemate at Dukla Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 21, as Dukla Praha and Karviná drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.63 xG and Karviná 1.56 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Karviná landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.77 / defence 1.35 against Karviná attack 1.01 / defence 1.45, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 38% | Draw 26% | Karviná 36%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 50%, Karviná 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Karviná's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights