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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.64 xG and Hradec Králové 1.02 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 1.01 / defence 0.81 against Hradec Králové attack 1.04 / defence 1.19, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 52% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 45%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights