Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Dukla Praha 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Dukla Praha 1-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.89 xG and Hradec Králové 1.18 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.77 / defence 1.22 against Hradec Králové attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 26% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 41%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 56%, Hradec Králové 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights