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Prediction vindicated as Dukla Praha edge out České Budějovice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Stadion Juliska, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.37 xG and České Budějovice 0.87 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against České Budějovice attack 0.67 / defence 1.42, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 48% | Draw 28% | České Budějovice 24%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 50%, České Budějovice 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

České Budějovice's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dukla Praha arrived the stronger side — 0.91 PPG against 0.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights