Dukla Praha 0-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Baník Ostrava make the trip to Stadion Juliska to face Dukla Praha in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dukla Praha have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Juliska this season.
Baník Ostrava (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Dukla Praha against 0.70 for Baník Ostrava. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Baník Ostrava have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Dukla Praha's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 48% versus Baník Ostrava 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 39% | Baník Ostrava 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.25 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.727 / defence 1.090 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.845 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Dukla Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Dukla Praha games / 60 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 32%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Baník Ostrava 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dukla Praha at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 30% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 5 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Dukla Praha 1.25 / Baník Ostrava 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.727 / def 1.090 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.845 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Baník Ostrava xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Dukla Praha 0 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Relegation Group - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 39% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Record (4 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 3W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dukla Praha's attack at 0.73x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.84x) against Dukla Praha's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
39%
2.60
30%
3.34
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.36
1.11
Baník Ostrava xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.11 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 12W 23D 34L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 28W 13D 28L from 69 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 0.97 PPG from 32 outings (7W 10D 15L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 10W 8D 14L from 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.26 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 12W 23D 34L in their last 69 games (0.86 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 28W 13D 28L in their last 69 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 0.97 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Baník Ostrava have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
4
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava?
From 5 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Baník Ostrava have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-3 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 50%, Baník Ostrava 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dukla Praha) and 44% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 34% of games; Baník Ostrava in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 47% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 44% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Dukla Praha 0-3 at Stadion Juliska, Relegation Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.25 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.11 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 32%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 39%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (69 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (69 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.