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Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Dukla Praha 0-3 at Stadion Juliska, Relegation Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.25 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.11 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 32%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 39%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (69 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (69 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights