🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Dukla Praha 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Dukla Praha 1-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.63 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.43 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.66 / defence 1.03 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.15 / defence 0.71, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 16% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 56%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 43%, Baník Ostrava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights