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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bohemians 1905 and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 27, as Bohemians 1905 and Teplice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.18 xG and Teplice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Teplice attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 38% | Draw 32% | Teplice 30%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 50%, Teplice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.15 PPG, Teplice 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights