Bohemians 1905 1-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 58%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 30 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Bohemians 1905 at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Teplice (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Teplice's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Teplice arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Bohemians 1905 2–0 Teplice — a Bohemians 1905 win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 56% and Teplice 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 56% | Teplice 64%). Note also that Teplice surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 2.03 xG and Teplice 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.110 / defence 1.025 | Teplice attack 1.062 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.029. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 31 games and Teplice's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 58% | Draw 22% | Teplice 20%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.72 | Draw 4.62 | Teplice 4.96. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Bohemians 1905 31 games, Teplice 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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