Bohemians 1905 1-3 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ďolíček. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Praha are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 52% versus Sparta Praha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Sparta Praha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.97 xG and Sparta Praha 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.718 / defence 0.747 | Sparta Praha attack 1.138 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.241. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Bohemians 1905 games / 57 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 36%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Sparta Praha 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 20% | Sparta Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.97 / Sparta Praha 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.718 / def 0.747 | Sparta Praha attack 1.138 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sparta Praha xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 3 Sparta Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 4W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.14x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
31%
3.18
33%
3.05
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.03
1.05
Sparta Praha xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.05 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 17D 23L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 44W 13D 5L from 62 games, 2.34 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 20W 7D 3L from 30 away games — 2.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.18 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 22W 17D 23L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 44W 13D 5L in their last 62 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.33 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 47%, Sparta Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 43%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 50% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 1-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.97 xG and Sparta Praha 1.05 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.72 / defence 0.75 against Sparta Praha attack 1.14 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 36%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Sparta Praha 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.