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Dominant Bohemians 1905 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Slovan Liberec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Slovan Liberec 4-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.84 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.49 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.15 / defence 0.73, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 21% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 52%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Slovan Liberec 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.08 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights