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Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.63 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 45%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 52%, Slovan Liberec 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.15 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights