Bohemians 1905 1-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Slovácko at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 0.80 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bohemians 1905 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slovácko in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Slovácko trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 60% versus Slovácko 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 64% | Slovácko 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.15 xG and Slovácko 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.961 / defence 1.336 | Slovácko attack 0.860 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.126. Data: 25 Bohemians 1905 games / 25 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 40%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Slovácko 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 1905 60% | Slovácko 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.15 / Slovácko 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.961 / def 1.336 | Slovácko attack 0.860 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Slovácko xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 33% chance of winning, Slovácko a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Slovácko (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.96) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.67
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.45
1.29
Slovácko xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.29 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 6W 5D 14L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko's form line: 14W 5D 6L from 25 games, 1.88 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.64 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slovácko in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 14W 5D 6L in their last 25 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovácko away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.42 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Slovácko in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Slovácko have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bohemians 1905 at 67%, Slovácko at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Bohemians 1905 and 67% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bohemians 1905's games and 67% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 67% of Slovácko's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.15 xG and Slovácko 1.29 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Slovácko attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 40%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 64%, Slovácko 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.