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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Slovácko 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Slovácko 1-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.16 xG and Slovácko 0.97 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.79 / defence 0.96 against Slovácko attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 30%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Slovácko 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Slovácko's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG, Slovácko 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights