🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Bohemians 1905 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.51 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 28% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 44%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 50%, Sigma Olomouc 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights