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Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Bohemians 1905 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.15 xG and Plzen 1.60 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 25% | Draw 29% | Plzen 46%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 46%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Plzen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights